Outlook 2009--Durham Rela Estate

2009 could be a good year if:
· you realize that the glass is not half empty but is actually half full
· you understand that if you have made it this far you probably will make it the rest of the way
· you discover that this is the best time in the last fifty years to buy a house. Mortgage rates are at unheard of lows and there is no shortage of money to lend to the potential home buyers. Home prices are flat at best and down in certain areas, and the supply is plentiful.
· some of the bailout money actually bubbles to the surface in the real world and all of the neat plans announced in the last few years for our area actually start to spring into action.
There are many reasons to be optimistic if you live in the Triangle. Folks are still moving here in record numbers. North Carolina was the fourth fastest growing state last year. The pent up demand for homes should spark the return of consumer confidence in real estate. The reason that return of confidence in real estate is so important is because the housing industry is one-third of our national economy. It will be able to single-handedly lead us out of a recession.
Speaking of recessions, Durham was recently named the third best city in the US to ride out a recession. What is even more impressive is that the number one and two cities were Washington D.C. and northern Virginia burbs where they just print more money during slow times if they don’t have enough. That means that Durham has the most solid and stable economy in the real world. Our people are well educated and our job base is solid and diversified. That is a good thing.
Another interesting set of statistics came out last week. For the first time since they have been tracking such things, the annual average price of a home, according to Standard and Poor’s index, fell in all of the twenty largest metropolitan markets. By the way, Charlotte is number twenty in size in this index. The national average decline was 18% and the market with the smallest decline among these cities was Dallas at -3.2%. Charlotte had the second smallest decline at -4.4%. If the Triangle had been a reporting district, we would be the award winner with an average price gain last year of +3.8%. This is why it is still the best place in the country to buy a home.